KOSCIUSZKO NATIONAL PARK — The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures for Australian alpine regions this winter. El Niño conditions are expected to develop in the coming months and bring hotter and drier weather to eastern Australia.
The bureau forecasts both maximum and minimum temperatures to be above average in alpine areas. Jonathan How, a senior forecaster at the bureau, said, "Overall with that dry and warm outlook and the El Niño, it does not favour good deep snow cover for skiers." He added, "It tips the odds against a good season because of the less rainfall and high temperatures. That's a bad combination."
How said, "But these long-range forecasts can't predict the day-to-day weather systems. We will still get those low pressure systems and we will see winter systems move through." Snow was falling at alpine resorts ahead of the scheduled Saturday season opening. However, forecasts for the week following the opening indicate daytime temperatures of up to 10C. How said, "Next week we start to see temperatures rising again. That means the snow might not stick around very long."
Scientists at the Australian National University and the University of Innsbruck used a climate model named SkiSim2 to project the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on 11 Australian ski resorts. Ruby Olsson, a researcher at the university, said, "The model showed us that the average resort season length would drop by between 15% and 17% by 2030." Olsson said, "There is a really stark difference between the emissions scenarios. The more we can reduce our emissions, the cheaper and more effective our adaptation will be."
Josh Elliott, chief executive of Snow Resorts Australia, said, "Alpine conditions have always been variable from season to season, and resorts are accustomed to planning for a wide range of weather outcomes." Snow-making technology has been used in the Australian ski industry for more than 35 years, and some resorts have installed next-generation snow-making systems capable of operating at temperatures up to 20C. Elliott said, "No industry can predict exactly what conditions will look like decades into the future. The key question is whether it continues to adapt and evolve for the future, and Australia's alpine sector has demonstrated a long-term commitment to doing exactly that."