ATLANTIC OCEAN — Colorado State University released an updated seasonal forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a decrease in storm activity. The new forecast projects 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. This current projection is a decrease from the university's April forecast, which anticipated 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes.
Researchers attribute the reduced activity projection primarily to a high probability of a strong developing El Niño pattern. An El Niño is a climate cycle phase characterized by warmer-than-average water temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. These above-average Pacific temperatures generate atmospheric patterns that increase vertical wind shear, which inhibits tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic.
Federal climate records indicate that neutral Pacific atmospheric conditions have recently been established. Long-range climate models project that El Niño will reach maximum intensity in November. Forecasters expect elevated wind shear linked to El Niño to serve as the primary atmospheric factor limiting storm development in 2026. Despite this, forecast models project Atlantic sea surface temperatures will remain above average throughout the hurricane season.
Meteorological data indicates that a similar combination of warm Atlantic waters and a suppressing El Niño pattern occurred in 2023. The historical average for an Atlantic hurricane season includes 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The U.S. coastline has a 24% probability of experiencing at least one major landfalling hurricane during the current season. Historical data from 1880 to 2020 shows a 43% average probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline.
Hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross stated that hurricane seasons with below-average storm counts can still produce individual systems capable of causing major damage. The university will issue a mid-season hurricane forecast update in August.
No independent assessment was available for this report.