NEW YORK — Acadian Asset Management senior portfolio manager Owen Lamont published a blog post on June 3 titled "A pessimistic take on optimistic growth forecasts." Lamont argued that a surge in earnings expectations is a more reliable indicator of a market bubble than stock price movements.
Lamont calculated that since 1985, financial analysts have predicted an average annual earnings growth of 13% for S&P 500 companies. The actual annual earnings growth for S&P 500 companies during that period has averaged approximately 7%.
Lamont cited research by Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta, and Andrei Shleifer regarding investor behavior. He noted that expected long-term S&P 500 earnings growth reached 20.2%. This 20.2% expected growth rate exceeds the 18.6% high recorded in the year 2000.
"Their findings suggest that shareholders will be disappointed over the next five years as earnings fail to grow as fast as expected, just as they were after the tech stock bubble." Lamont said.
"But for me, today's optimism is yet another way in which 2026 is looking like 1999," he added.
The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 account for more than 41% of the index's total market capitalization and 33% of its total earnings. Deutsche Bank's global economics team published a market outlook report on June 1, which characterized 2026 economic conditions as a combination of technology-driven optimism and Middle East energy supply disruptions. Deutsche Bank set a year-end S&P 500 target of 8,000.
No independent assessment of Owen Lamont’s claims was available.