UK — The UK government modified its zero-emission vehicle mandate last year to include provisions allowing automakers to sell more vehicles with petrol engines. The mandate, established in 2023, requires automakers to increase electric car sales to 80 percent by 2030.
An analysis of Department for Transport forecasts indicates these changes will result in an additional 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions on UK roads by 2030, projecting an additional 59 billion miles driven using petrol and diesel engines in cars and vans compared with earlier forecasts. The department attributed this projected increase primarily to the mandate modifications.
"We remain committed to phasing out all new non-zero-emission car and van sales by 2035. We’re investing more than £7.5bn to grow the market and deliver infrastructure, with May another record-breaking month for EV registrations. It has never been easier or cheaper to own an EV, especially against the backdrop of high and fluctuating prices at the pumps," said a government spokesperson.
"Were the government to weaken the mandate still further, it could lead to even more drivers being sold PHEVs that, far from saving them money, cost significantly more to run than their manufacturers claim, and which cost hundreds, even thousands, of pounds a year more to own and run than an electric car," said Colin Walker, head of transport at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.
"The charging industry is channelling billions of pounds into building infrastructure on the promise of future customers based on the forecasts set by the ZEV mandate. Last year’s revisions to the quotas were not tweaks but a significant shift that has already undercut the industry’s investment case. Another rollback before the dust has even settled would pull the rug from beneath the charging sector and threaten a downward spiral for the entire transition," said Vicky Read, chief executive of ChargeUK.
Sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the UK increased by 48 percent this year. However, the department indicated that fewer plug-in hybrid drivers use battery mode than previously estimated. New AutoMotive analysis indicates that the reported 33 percent electric vehicle sales rate this year could theoretically decrease to 7 percent if automakers fully use mandate flexibilities, including plug-in hybrid sales. Battery electric vehicles themselves produce zero direct carbon emissions.
The government has committed to reviewing the mandate by early 2027. Automakers face fines if they do not meet the mandate sales targets. Carbon Tracker research found that major automakers underestimate vehicle carbon dioxide emissions by an average of one-third.