SPRINGFIELD, MO. — Researchers at Peking University published a study in Nature on May 27, 2026, presenting the first global quantitative estimate of how climate change may increase the frequency of large, damaging hailstones. The study projects that grapefruit-sized hail will become more common in many regions, potentially raising the risk of property and agricultural damage.
The team developed a computer simulation that estimates hailstone growth based on atmospheric conditions like temperature, moisture, and wind. They tested the model on more than 14,000 real-world hailstorms globally from 2014 to 2021. The simulation suggests large hailstones will become more frequent, increasing hailstorm damage in some areas.
Hail forms when strong updrafts lift moisture into cold clouds, where water droplets freeze around particles and grow until too heavy to remain aloft. Warmer air holds more water vapor, providing more material for hailstone growth. Although hailstones pass through a deeper layer of above-freezing air in a warmer atmosphere—increasing melting before reaching the ground—large hailstones can still reach the surface as sizable ice chunks, while smaller ones may melt completely into raindrops.
The study indicates hail damage may increase in regions farther from the equator but decrease in tropical and subtropical areas. Temperatures are expected to rise more sharply at higher latitudes by the end of the century, and this extra warming can strengthen storm cloud updrafts, allowing hailstones to grow larger. "Extra warming can strengthen updrafts inside storm clouds, allowing hailstones to grow larger," said Shiyi Zhang, a meteorologist at Peking University. He added, "If temperatures keep rising, larger and more damaging hail will probably become a greater threat in many regions."
Qinghong Zhang, a meteorologist at Peking University who led the research, said, "This is the first study to make a quantitative estimate of hail hazard events worldwide." He acknowledged uncertainties in the study but noted that validation against historical hailstorm data from China and the U.S. suggests the uncertainties are manageable.
Climatologist Davide Faranda of the French National Center for Scientific Research called the study an "interesting and timely contribution to understanding how climate change may affect hail hazards." He also stated, "Hail is an extremely local phenomenon. Global climate models cannot explicitly resolve hailstorms."