WASHINGTON, D.C. — Marco Rubio’s support among likely Republican primary voters rose to 35% in an Emerson College poll conducted May 24–25, 2026, up from 20% in February 2026. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters, placed Rubio just behind JD Vance, who received 36% support—down from 52% in February.
While Vance remains narrowly ahead in the Emerson College survey, prediction markets reflect a tightening race as well. Traders on Kalshi assigned Rubio a 30% probability of securing the 2028 Republican nomination, up from approximately 12% earlier in the year. On Polymarket, another leading prediction market, Vance held a slight edge with a 31% implied probability, while Rubio trailed closely at just under 27%.
The shift in voter sentiment coincides with increased visibility for Rubio in national political discourse. In May 2026, he delivered a brief, impromptu address from the White House press room outlining his vision for the country. The remarks were later edited into a short-form video that gained widespread online traction.
Other prominent Republican figures registered minimal support in the May Emerson College poll. Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. each polled below 5% for the 2028 Republican nomination.
The Emerson College findings show a realignment in the Republican field over a three-month span. Vance’s 16-point drop—from 52% to 36%—mirrors Rubio’s 15-point gain. Though Donald Trump is not a candidate in these polls, The New York Times reported that Trump has questioned whether Vance is a suitable successor, referencing Vance’s earlier opposition to military action in Iran.