U.S. — The U.S. online program management (OPM) market contracted sharply by 2024, with the number of new OPM partnerships falling to 73—the lowest level since 2016, down from a peak of 141 in 2021. Total OPM revenues in 2025 reached approximately $3 billion, far below earlier projections of $8.25 billion by the same year.
Major OPM providers exited the market or underwent restructuring during this period. In 2023, both Wiley and Pearson sold their OPM divisions to private equity firms. In 2024, 2U filed for bankruptcy, shed $500 million in debt, and re-emerged as a private company. Also in 2024, private equity acquired Keypath.
Regulatory scrutiny increased alongside these market shifts. In January 2025, the U.S. Department of Education issued guidance warning that colleges could lose access to federal financial aid if their contractors provided “false, misleading, or inaccurate information” to students. Minnesota and Ohio enacted state-level OPM regulations, and lawmakers in California, Florida, Massachusetts, and New Jersey proposed similar legislation. A 2024 lawsuit against the University of Maryland Global Campus alleged its revenue-sharing model with Coursera violated federal law.
Seventy percent of OPMs now use artificial intelligence to enhance services such as coaching, content creation, tutoring, and curriculum mapping. Chris Gardiner, senior analyst at Eduventures, said, “I don’t see AI enabling growth. I see it being complementary.” He added, “It will be part of how they adapt and reshape what they do with improvements to supports and instructional design, but those are going to be on the efficiency side. It doesn’t change the calculus for institutions evaluating an OPM partnership.”
Brady Colby, head of market research at Validated Insights, said, “There were semi-clearly defined lines around what OPMs did and their value proposition for institutions. But now institutions will be able to think of those particular services or functions in terms of AI offerings that might be coming from an OPM, an LMS or a different provider. It definitely introduces a lot more competition for OPMs.” He added, “The proposition from OPMs will be ‘How can we help you enable automation to do prospective student outreach? How can we help you utilize AI to do academic counseling, improve student outcomes or find jobs for graduates?’”