QINGDAO — China’s crude oil imports dropped by 20% in April 2026 to 9.4 million barrels per day and fell further to 7 million barrels per day in May 2026, delaying a projected global oil market ‘crunch point.’ The decline marks the largest monthly drop since the pandemic and reflects a broader shift as China eases earlier oil hoarding and releases some of its strategic reserves.
Chinese refiners more aggressively drained inventories in May 2026 compared to April, while Beijing’s cap on fuel exports has led to reduced crude consumption by domestic refineries. These actions have softened near-term pressure on global supplies due to an estimated shortfall of more than 10 million barrels per day worldwide.
Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, stated: “Taking a step back, weakness in China’s crude imports could delay the crunch point for the global oil market.” He added in a separate note: “Back of the envelope calculations suggest that if China’s demand for crude in May were to be repeated in June, the ‘tipping point’ in the global oil market could be pushed back from June and into July.”
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth acknowledged the temporary reprieve but warned of impending price pressure. “Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices and there’s more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July,” he said. Wirth also said oil prices will likely soon jump as the market’s “shock absorbers” are depleted.
Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, offered a contrasting view. In a Substack post, he concluded: “The bottom line is that this supply shock really wasn’t all that traumatic. That’s also why oil prices didn’t have to rise to apocalyptic levels. There just wasn’t all that much demand that needed to be ‘destroyed.’”
China has emerged as a swing consumer in the global oil market, with its actions influencing inventory outlooks. Analysts had previously predicted that global oil inventories could reach critically low levels as soon as June, and institutions like JPMorgan and UBS had warned that commercial inventories in developed economies were nearing operational stress levels. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply remains bottled up in the Persian Gulf, while Saudi Arabia has diverted exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S. naval blockade on Iran has further reduced available supply, and major oil-consuming nations have coordinated releases from strategic reserves as Asian economies implement oil rationing measures.