ATLANTIC OCEAN — The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Monday, with major forecasting agencies predicting a below-normal 2026 season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University both project reduced tropical cyclone activity compared to recent averages.
Several atmospheric and oceanic factors are expected to limit storm development. Massive plumes of Saharan dust are moving across the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean and Gulf, and are forecast to spread into the Southeast and potentially parts of the Southern Plains. According to the FOX Forecast Center, Saharan dust typically suppresses early-season tropical activity by creating a more stable atmosphere. The dust can also produce hazy skies and vibrant sunrises and sunsets.
Sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Main Development Region—the area between Africa and the Caribbean where most Atlantic hurricanes form—are cooler than in recent years. The FOX Forecast Center noted that these cooler temperatures contribute to greater atmospheric stability, further inhibiting storm formation.
A developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is also expected to strengthen by the peak of the hurricane season. El Niño typically increases wind shear across the Atlantic Basin, disrupting tropical systems before they can organize and strengthen. While the first named storm in the Atlantic has typically formed in June in recent years, and the first hurricane usually develops by August, the combination of Saharan dust, cooler ocean temperatures, and El Niño-related wind shear suggests a slower start and overall quieter season.
In a related development, the World Meteorological Organization Hurricane Committee officially retired the name 'Melissa' following the death and destruction caused by Hurricane Melissa in October 2025. Hurricane names in the Atlantic rotate on a six-year cycle, with new names substituted for those retired due to impact. Storms are named in alphabetical order, beginning with A on both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific lists.