Drafts of potential peace agreements circulating after Donald Trump’s 'little excursion to Iran' are being universally perceived as signaling a defeat. The documents emerged following a period of intensified conflict that resulted in the deaths of 13 U.S. military personnel.
The Tehran regime survived an initial wave of assassinations at the start of the war, including the death of its supreme leader, who has since been succeeded by Mojtaba Khamenei. The conflict confirmed the status of cheap drones as a significant factor in modern warfare. Iran learned lessons about drone warfare from the Ukraine conflict better than the Pentagon did.
Former U.S. ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro dismissed Trump’s assertion that Saudi Arabia or Qatar would normalize relations with Israel or join the Abraham Accords. “Trump’s claims that Saudi Arabia or Qatar would normalize relations with Israel or join the Abraham Accords are delusional as a moon made of green cheese,” Shapiro said.
Barbara Leaf, former U.S. undersecretary for the Middle East, said Gulf states would accept an imperfect peace because they see no alternative. “Gulf states would prefer an imperfect peace because they see no other way out,” Leaf said.
Danny Citrinowicz, former head of an Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence, described the war as an operational success but a strategic fiasco for Israel. “The war was an operational success but a strategic fiasco for Israel,” Citrinowicz said.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had previously pledged “death and destruction from the sky,” vowing to hit 13,000 targets in the first month of conflict alone. Trump, who was implacably opposed to endless wars that seemed disconnected to the everyday lives of his supporters, has threatened to withdraw U.S. troops from NATO states in retribution for their refusal to support his actions.
The Council on Foreign Relations views Trump’s actions in Iran as confirmation that his personalized, instinctive diplomacy creates disorder.