As of a Friday in 2026, wildfires had burned approximately 2.4 million acres across the United States, nearly double the 10-year average for that date, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Much of the burning occurred in the southeast U.S. and Plains states—including Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma—where grass fires dominated the early fire activity.
Unusually dry conditions have contributed to the elevated fire risk. Soil moisture levels nationwide were exceptionally low in early 2026, per data from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite mission. The U.S. Drought Monitor reported that current drought conditions were drier for the time of year than at any point so far this century, with the Southeast, southern Great Plains, and Mountain West among the hardest-hit regions.
Mountain snowpacks in the Rockies and California’s Sierra Nevada were among the lightest in recent history following a mild winter marked by frequent rain instead of snow, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Snow Data Assimilation System. Despite heavy rains that improved drought conditions in California, the state still faced minimal snowpack, creating uncertainty about its fire season.
Timothy Ingalsbee, co-founder and executive director of Firefighters United for Safety, Ethics and Ecology, said, “I think this is going to be the year. The conditions are just ripe for some really bad outcomes.” Craig Clements, director of the Fire Weather Research Laboratory at San José State University, said, “I personally think it’s hard to say, ‘This is what the season is going to be.’”
Daniel Swain, a weather and climate scientist with University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, noted that California’s situation remained uncertain. “California is a little bit more of a wildcard. I’m not sure how it is going to go,” he said. He added, “It’s a bit of a double-edged sword. Those early storms could be a big problem. They could ignite many lightning fires.”