WASHINGTON — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a forecast on May 28, 2025, projecting that annual global temperatures from 2026 to 2030 will likely exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The report states there is a 75% chance that the five-year average will surpass this threshold, and a 91% probability that at least one year in that period will do so.
There is an 86% chance that one of the years between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, according to the WMO. Annual global temperatures during this period are projected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average. U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said, “Despite the progress of recent years, it’s clear that global heating is still outpacing global efforts to contain it, and the baking temperatures in Europe, India and elsewhere show yet again the brutal human and economic impacts of humanity still burning colossal amounts of coal, oil and gas.” Stiell added, “Whether it’s extreme heat, mega-storms, floods, massive wildfires or droughts hitting food supply and prices, every nation is already paying a huge price from this global climate crisis.”
The WMO’s projections are based on approximately 200 runs of computer simulations using 13 different climate models from various countries. The report forecasts unusually dry and warmer conditions in the Amazon basin, which could increase wildfire risks and potentially shift the rainforest from a carbon sink to a net emitter. In the Sahel region, more than normal rainfall is expected, raising the likelihood of flooding. A strong El Niño is predicted to form by late 2026 and could extend through 2028, contributing to record-breaking temperatures. “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author.
Arctic warming is projected to be 3.5 times faster than the global average due to reduced ice and snow cover. The region is expected to warm nearly 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.66 degrees Celsius) between 2026 and 2030, with Arctic winters averaging 5.1°F (2.8°C) warmer than the 1991–2020 baseline. Arctic sea ice is forecast to continue shrinking in summer, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk. Climate scientist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London warned, “This will mean many people will lose their lives, we are in for a lot of food price shocks, and more intense wildfires.”